Yes. The world is in the midst of a pandemic of the COVID-19 virus. But in between all the political posturing and breathless fear inducing media coverage could we all just take a deep, cleansing breath? In fact, take four or five.
I usually deal in crime statistics, but this week let’s look at health statistics, shall we?
The World Health Organization warns the U.S. may soon become the epicenter of the pandemic due to our “very large acceleration” in coronavirus cases.
Well, of course there is an acceleration of U.S. cases because we are testing high-risk and already sick people at an accelerated rate. Common sense says that more testing equals more positive cases.
Not to downplay this pandemic at all, but the name of the game now is perspective. Let me offer some.
We are a nation of 330 million people. Last year the seasonal flu claimed some 34,000 lives here. As I write this, The Centers for Disease Control report the coronavirus in the U.S. has killed 2,112. Other tallies put the toll at a bit higher.
I know this COVID-19 virus isn’t like the various flu strains that attack us every year. This is a brand-new disease, no one had immunity from it, and that’s why it spread so rapidly around the world. In that respect, this novel coronavirus is more severe than the seasonal flu. More people are getting it, but COVID-19 has not actually sickened everyone who contracts it. And, so far – please read this carefully – it hasn’t been nearly as deadly here in the U.S. as past viruses.
Most people who get infected with COVID-19 become sick and then they get better within a couple weeks. If you are not a frail elderly person with a weakened immune system or suffering from a major health problem like cancer or lung disease you don’t have to worry about dying from coronavirus.
Here’s more perspective. Major newspapers reported on an early CDC briefing to health experts that laid out various scenarios about COVID-19. The absolute worst-case estimated between 200,000 and 1.7 million deaths in the U.S.. But – and read this part carefully too, please – that was if there was absolutely no intervention.
As everyone knows scads of government intervention plans are in play. Schools and non-essential businesses are closed, stay-at-home orders have gone out resulting in deserted cities and towns, public health warnings about clean hands and masks are everywhere. If you don’t know how to protect yourself from infection by now you aren’t paying attention.
Readers have written me worried that this country may never recover financially, that many businesses will fold, the stock market will continue to plunge and they fret over the prospect of mob rule and rising crime rates.
There will be pain, no doubt, but now is not the time for panic. Nor for partisan politics. It’s time for everyone to focus on one common goal – the health of this country. It’s time for our famous American determination to kick in.
You know, we Americans have not been called upon to sacrifice much in the last several decades. Certainly not like The Greatest Generation did during World War II when food and gasoline were rationed and record numbers of war dead came home. After the terror of September 11th, 2001 as our sheltered lives were forever changed, we sacrificed some peace of mind. Now, here’s another defining moment in history and we are called upon to endure lifestyle disruption.
No paycheck? The government promises to help struggling families. Late paid taxes, mortgages, rent and car payments will be tolerated. No, you can’t go out to your favorite restaurant or mall or visit a loved one in a nursing home, but your temporary sacrifice will help stop the spread of this insidious virus.
In 1918, this country lost 675,000 souls to the so-called Spanish Flu. In 1968, the Avian Flu claimed 100,000 lives. We have learned from those terrible times and today we have both a more robust public health system and superior scientific minds and technology. Research on a COVID-19 vaccine is already well underway.
Perspective and fact-based thinking is the name of the game now. Let’s all try to remember that. Deep breaths.
Reader Richard Flores writes:
Thank you for your perspective on Covid-19. I’ve read several good articles on this matter, and a couple of them do in fact make me breathe easier, including yours. I think the social distancing will soon take over and the spread will slow down across the country. It has to! I’ve also looked at the statistics almost daily and wonder why people “freak out.” There are little over two million people in New Mexico, and we have one death from Covid-19. Although there will be more, I think we have had the breathing room to get better prepared and to consolidate our resources to mount an effective defense. Again, I thank you for your thoughtful perspective on Covid-19, and I hope that others have read or will read it. Best wishes to you and yours.
Reader shannon Horst writes:
I am so grateful you wrote this editorial. Someone has to be a voice of reason amid the panic.
Shannon Horst
Reader Ms. Dimond,
Finally, a voice of reason! I was getting so frustrated by all the panic and hysteria, which simply didn’t match up with the facts/numbers, that I was compelled to write the attached essay primarily as a therapeutic measure. I have also sent it to many friends in hope of allaying fears.
I have spent hundreds of hours reading and studying about the current outbreak and the Spanish Flu of 1918. There are similarities and so many differences. As you point out, this virus is simply not that lethal. In addition, many people are completely asymptomatic. What is important and perhaps lacking is not taking more more extreme measures to protect the most vulnerable who, of course, are a subset of those in “lockdown.” I believe in the vertical interdiction model that has been written about more articulately than I by Dr. David Katz, a former Disease prevention expert at my alma mater, Yale.
In any event, thanks for your voice of reason and for what it is worth, I am attaching my essay.
Frank A. Baca
Attorney at Law
Reader Judy Paquin writes:
Your column this AM was right on!
I’m sure you’ll get more rude comments than appreciative ones.
I’m a woman of a certain age, living alone, under house arrest. My friends are too frightened to leave the house.
Gratefully I am teleworking, which helps…but I am climbing the walls.
I’m glad I don’t live in NYC (I ❤️NY, tho!)
I feel badly for my young adult children. My son’s senior year at UCONN is decimated. And I know there are millions of such sad stories.
Thank you for your article . I was beginning to think I was alone in my thinking.
Reader Al Koschmann writes:
Good morning,
I just read your “Take a Breath” article. Great article. Great perspective. Great advice.
I’m taking deep breaths.
Blessings,
Al
Reader Barbara Brooks writes:
It’s easy for you to say—you aren’t over 60 with asthma!
Diane Dimond replies to Barbara;
Ummm. Yes, actually I am a person of that age with an underlying health condition. I do as much as I can to keep myself healthy.
Reader Kevin McNulty writes:
You should be ashamed of yourself. Dr. Faucci, the leading expert in America on virology, has came out and said between AT LEAST 100,000 to 200,000 people will likely die and that’s AFTER all the mitigation standards. You’re using old data to support your downplay.
The asymptomatic nature of this virus ensures that it will be with us for a long long time and we are AT LEAST 18 months away from a workable vaccine.
People in there 30s and 40s are dropping like flies in Italy and Spain. And America is a country FILLED TO THE BRIM of fat/obese unhealthy people who will surely be at a MUCH HIGHER risk.
Remember, the 4% mortality rate is for HEALTHY YOUNG ADULTS not unhealthy baby boomers. Hundreds of thousands of people will die, we should be preparing for the hardship of that reality instead of telling people that they are overreacting. People in America are not taking this seriously enough!
My friend, good friend, Antonio Ricci (28 from Milan Italy) died 4 days ago. He was an athlete, fitness enthusiast. He died and he was only 3 of 9 family members who survived up until this week. His 31 year old sister died from it, his 34 year old brother died from it, and his younger brother who is 24 is in critical condition. All of them healthy people. The only ones left are his mom and dad (71 and 73 respectively) and they are currently in the ICU and will likely succumb to this as well.
DO NOT say its just effecting old people and people with preexisting conditions. It’s affecting old people and people with pre-existing conditions at a higher rate but it’s also affecting healthy people as well. Every one should heed notice and do everything they can to prevent the spread further.
Diane Dimond replies:
Mr. McNulty,
First, I’m very, very sorry for the loss of your Italian friends.
What the medical/scientific community relies upon is statistical DATA. Right now, in part because Americans began social distancing, self-quarantine practices, etc (unlike Italians, unfortunately) the data shows our mortality rate is 1.5%.
Math tells us that 1.5% of the 330 million people in this country equals 4,950,000. Absolutely no one is predicting ing that 4.9 million will die in America. When Dr. Faucci was pressed and then pressed again by CNN to say how many might die here in the U.S. he said “…between 100,000 and 200,000.” He added, “I hope not, but MAYBE.”
Yes. People are going to die. But, please, let’s keep this awful situation in perspective.
Reader agrrlpilot writes:
Right on! No one, least of all the general media, is putting the numbers in perspective. If we as a people reported with the same breathless excitement every single drunk driving death in the same perspective less manner, we would spend the rest of our lives on foot.
Again, thank you!!
Carol Dow
Reader Jerome Paul Shea writes:
Good and necessary job, Diane. Kudos. Now if we just had a leader more competent than a three-year-old.
Jerry
Reader Ken Guarino writes:
Thank you Mrs. Dimond! I read every word of that article and was intrigued by the truth to it that you told! It is very refreshing!
Reader Mike writes:
Good morning,
As I have never written to anyone at the newspaper I want to thank you for your article today. The way you stated facts without scaring or fluffing was perfect. If people could just read and understand we all would be so better off. You really get it.
Thank you.
Mike Uszuko(67 and healthy)
Reader Jack Cloak writes:
Diane,
I have really enjoyed your last few articles in the paper, most recently the “Take a Breath” article referring to the Coronavirus. You showed actual #’s to put this in real perspective; yes the virus is not good but it is not the plague nor the end of the world.
I’m 36 years old and I’ve seen how people my age and younger become susceptible to the overabundance of information provided on the internet. So many news articles are way out of context and their “click bait” headlines are written with shock and awe. They lack true perspective and context, but they tug at peoples emotions which creates cumulative overreactions the way we can share information now.
Long story short, keep up the good work. Your article should be on the front page to create calm and get us back on track quicker, instead of others that leave minds to wonder into thoughts of apocalypse.
Sincerely,
Jack Cloak
Reader Jim Paschall writes:
It is my understanding that the CCP virus isn’t killing just the weakened elderly with compromised immune systems but also those in their 20’s, 30’s and 40’s if we ’re to believe the medical reports emanating from Europe and in particular Italy and Spain. The ilk of such articles as this one either ignore or are ignorant of the asymptomatic characteristic this virus employs hence this pandemic can be with us for a long time and could very well be in time the deadliest human kind has known. Such writings as this one instills in me a “breath taking” moment along with a grain of salt.
Isn’t the CCP essentially doing the same reporting so as to assuage the fears of its citizens during a dire sagging economy? Makes me wonder…..
Susan Haseltine writes:
FYI: ‘Record numbers of war dead came home.’ Really, The Dead do not return.
The Rev. Sue Haseltine.
I would, respectfully, disagree with you, Reverend. The dead return home to allow their loved ones to mourn, celebrate their life and be sent on to whatever comes next.
Tell the grieving mother of a dead soldier that her son/daughter is never coming home and see the reaction you get.
Reader gatewaytobeing
Stop parroting the same months-old misinformation of months ago. Educate yourself. It’s not about making mindless comparisons of how many died during an entire flu year versus hom many have died of covid in less than 3 months (already, an unfair comparison on that basis alone), it’s about how many are Projected to die – AT LEAST 10X more than flu. Possibly 50X. Quit journalism and do something less dangerous to others.
Michael Brown replies to GatewaytoBeing:
Talk about misinformation. There is absolutely zero basis for your 10X to 50X claims. Settle down
Reader Mitchell Stucker writes:
Only 34,000 lives lost last year; and that’s from a flu for which there IS a flu shot! Did you forget to mention THAT? Slight oversight I’m sure. Great comfort to folks dying alone.
Reader Joseph Roesch writes:
Ms. Diamond: (sic)
Regarding your column, “Take a Deep Breath . . .” published in the March 28 issue of the Albuquerque Journal, I agree with your final statement that “Perspective and fact-based thinking is the name of the game.”
In that regard, I had done a little fact-gathering and analysis back on March 25 based on reliable data I found from several sources, including the World Health Organization (WHO), Center for Disease Control (CDC), the British Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine and the British journal, The Lancet. All data was accurate as of that date. The World Health Organization reported out of 461,923 total cases, there had been 20,852 deaths. That yielded a morality rate worldwide of approximately 4.5%.
The situation has become worse since then, with 650,926 total cases and 30,299 deaths. The current death rate has now increased to 4.65%. WHO data reported by the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine documented 55,081 cases of COVID-19 in the United States. (We are now at 116,448 cases, up 211%.) A Forbes Magazine article of March 15 cited WHO data showing a doubling rate of infections at four days in the USA. At that time, there were only 1678 cases. Many major cities and states have since ordered “shelter-in-place” and yet the doubling rate is accelerating.
According to epidemiologists from sources cited above, “exponential growth will occur in the disease rate in humans so long as: there is at least one infected person in the population pool, regular contact between infected and uninfected members of the population occurs, and there are large numbers of uninfected potential hosts among the population.” Those same epidemiologists estimated at that time that up to one in three Americans could become infected unless severe measures to prevent spread were put into place.
That’s approximately 109 million sick Americans. Even IF our health system holds the line with the current mortality rate of 1.67% (it was 1.43% on March 25), 1.84 million Americans would die. As the US healthcare system is crippled by exponentially increasing numbers of sick Americans (like we are seeing in NYC, Seattle and Chicago), we could well reach rate now occurring in Italy, which is now at 10.8%. That would result in 11.9 million dead Americans. The worst-case estimates you cited from an “early CDC briefing” in your Op-Ed column (between 200,000 and 1.7 million deaths) seems serious flawed, given the evolving reality.
Based on the most recently reported data and analyses conducted, Professor Akiko Iwasaki of Yale stated, “COVID-19 is 30 times more deadly and almost two times more contagious than the flu. We have no existing immunity to COVID-19.” It spreads easily and rapidly through an unrestricted population.
Even with social distancing, our nation’s situation is degrading at an alarming rate. I urge you to revisit your column, consult with trusted experts, and help inform the nation as to the real risk to our country. I must admit that I am a bit sensitive to this situation and absolutely incensed by the callous and uninformed attitude being floated by the White House (“the cure is worse than the disease”) because I have a family member on the frontlines.
My son is an MD leading the fight at his hospital in Colorado, triaging and treating COVID-19 patients without sufficient PPE and resources to treat his patients. He is being forced to decide which emergent patients will be placed on ventilators, then split ventilators between two patients because the hospital does not have enough. He is overwhelmed, tired, frustrated and fears it is just a matter of time before he and many of his fellow healthcare workers become ill with COVID-19.
I won’t be taking any deep breaths until this nation confronts the COVID-19 pandemic head-on with real, courageous and moral leadership. I see no evidence from the White House of that happening any time soon.
Respectfully,
Joseph J. Roesch
Reader mikeller1@comcast.net writes:
Reeeeeelay! This is the stance that you take on COVID 19, that it doesn’t kill that many people? I wish no ill on anyone, but if you had someone who died due to the Trump policies and COVID 19 would you be so full of valor? This is truly un-American, un-Faithful, un-Kind, and un-Realistic. Please let me know if your grandmother died of COVID 19 would you be so full of perspective.
Margaret Keller
Reader Gunhild Vetter writes:
You are right we need to take a breath and get some fact based information.
Reading the Book of Revelation is kind of a blueprint of what we are facing but since God and the Bible are not politically correct, the secular world will not be made aware of what we are facing and what will happen if we do not heed 2 Chronicles 7:14 This is the time for a great awakening, last chance.
Reader Joe Bob@JoeBobMr writes:
that’s BS … worst case is MOST people catch it … that’s 175 million and 9% die (like Italy) …so that is 15 Million dead … and in the meantime FULL OUT SOCIAL #Anarchy breaks out and we have NO COUNTRY KLEFT … so your estimates are assinine
Reader Lucky Cat@LuckyCat555 writes:
If zero deaths is the objective, then we should think about banning guns, cars, drugs, sugar, tobacco & dangerous chemicals all in all. The overall death rate will lower CONSIDERABLY but never zero.
Nevertheless I practise confinement & only look at death & recovery rates.
Reader Paul Glidden writes:
Whew! I certainly found that reassuring. Well-reasoned and written. Thanks, Diane Dimond.
Reader Eddie Emmons writes:
Everything I’ve been saying for weeks now….many of us have probably been exposed and our immune system answered the call……
Reader Natalie Fido-Kennedy writes:
Thanks Ms Diane I actually finally took a deep breath …
Reader Nancy Spieker Robel writes:
I know. We have to focus on our personal circle and practice healthful responsibility to ourselves, our close friends, family and neighbors. That is a huge contribution to combating the spread of this virus. The myriad of conflicting doomsday predictions is making many of us feel unnecessarily and overwhelmingly depressed. Not good. Thanks DD.
Reader Roger Hawkes writes:
Precisely Diane!
Reader Mira Milivojevic writes:
You are always the voice of reason, one of the few on a global level, and that is why I appreciate and respect you so much! Stay safe and well
Reader Steve Liddick writes:
As one with COPD I am not personally comforted by those odds. Still, I hope your story eases some of the panic I am seeing in the grocery store isles.
Diane Dimond
Reader Jonathan Swartz writes:
Thanks for the great article Diane! I probably had the virus back in January and did not even know it especially the part when I felt like I was drowning. I did not go to the hospital, but I thought about it. It went away in a week or two.
Reader Sean Dimond writes:
I agree with deep breaths! I’m with you. And… the issue is not merely about the virus itself, in a vacuum or compared to other diseases.
The issue driving the crisis response of the crisis is about a health system being overwhelmed with cases of respiratory distress. The exponential deaths we are witnessing in Italy, Spain, Iran, France, and now NYC are because of ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) caused by COVID, and not COVID itself in isolation.
If we had more robust healthcare supply chains; testing and trace contacting; PPE; ventilators and beds; staff… then the impact would be significantly less. But we don’t. And so the crisis response seems to me to NOT be too much or overdone, but rather poorly managed and not enough.
Breathing deeply, too.
Reader Ramiro Reveles writes:
Well stated. I am one of those people with immunosuppressive issues but still not into the panic mode. This will be over before we know it.
Reader Tom Cobin writes:
“Not to downplay this pandemic” ?? REALLY??? That’s EXACTLY what you’re doing! Shamefully irresponsible.//
Diane Dimond replies to Tom Cobin:
Your excess punctuation and bold cap letters reveal your stress … yes, things are bad right now but I don’t appreciate you labeling me as “irresponsible” when I’m simply quoting stats and facts and offering readers a bit of perspective …. and some guidance through the media minefields of COVID reporting. Please dont answer as I don’t want to fight with you. Deep breaths…and count your blessings, Tom, instead of railing against the situation.
Denise Niemann replies to Tom Cobin:
She isn’t irresponsible. Im working with covid patients daily and think this has been overblown. Have you looked at the stats on how many die of the flu yearly? There is no reason to panic.
Reader Jill Brooke writes:
I see many silver linings – as we say at flowerpowerdaily- nature is pressing the reset button – we are also learning about our nature’s and gaining new perspective and priorities
Sue Corcoran writes:
I think it’s too soon to be comparing the statistics of seasonal flu, to this virus. Also, this virus does affect fit and healthy people. Numerous, including young adults and children, have contracted the virus and died from it.
Denise Niemann replies to Sue Corcoran:
I disagree. Working as a nurse I see many more die from flu. There are very few “healthy people” that will die from this. Are you as concerned about all the illegals and homeless walking around with TB?
Sue Corcoran replies to Denise Niemann:
This conversation isn’t about illegals or TB. All I said was it’s too early to compare this virus to flu, statistically. Diane Dimond is quoting statistics for a specific period of time with the flu. In order to have an accurate comparison, it would be common sense to compare over the same period of time.
Reader Donna R. Gore writes:
Yes, the right perspective is key…and focusing on humanity versus politics! I’ve seen people “delighted” by the fact that so and so caught the virus from an opposing party. Totally crazy and disrespectful! We all must pull together! Thanks for the wonderful blog, Diane. LJ
Reader Cliff Darnell writes:
Critical thinking skills are in short supply when you watch the media, Diane Dimond saves the day.
Personally I think when we have more testing identifying and isolating the hot spots will help us stop this .
Reader Denise Conroy writes:
Great article Diane, and people need to look at the statistics. More people have died from the flu than Covid 19. We have a vaccine for that and it’s still barely effective after all these years. I get my shot annually and I still had the flu this year. Also, the 24-7 media hype isn’t helping anyone. Keep the politics out of this and listen to the Doctors/medical experts! I swear at times we’re fighting 2 battles here…..
Covid 19 and Ignorance!!!!
Reader Fred Bunch writes:
Tell that to those people about to die and their families!
Diane Dimond replies to Fred Bunch:
Every death is a tragedy. This column was simply to put the actual current data into perspective. The percentage of people who get coronavirus do not die from it.
Reader Jim Reynolds writes:
The “truth” may not sit well with unbelievers, but the fact that it’s not universally accepted by all should not lessen in any way it’s importance or perspective.
Thank you, Diane Dimond
Reader Jody Wicks writes:
Diane Dimond thank you for all you do to bring us information needed at this horrific time. You always provide the actual data without bias or opinion. Thanks for all you do